The Heat Sheet: Week 1 Season Pass Edition

The Heat Sheet is built around one question:

Which players have already demonstrated the kind of salary-adjusted ceiling capable of breaking a tournament slate?

A 4x performance is important because it represents major tournament upside. But 5x is the extreme outcome.

That's where a player delivers five fantasy points for every $1,000 of his current DraftKings salary. Those are the performances that can completely change the shape of a large-field tournament.

The goal isn't to predict who will reach 5x this week. It's to identify where that level of upside has already existed and determine how strong the historical evidence really is.

For every player, we're looking at:

• Current DraftKings salary
• Current projection
• 5x target
• Historical 5x hits
• 5x Hit Rate
• Games played and sample size
• How that rate compares with the position
• Supporting 4x history when it adds useful context

The Week 1 Baseline

A 5x Hit Rate means more when we know what's typical at the position.

For Week 1, the positional comparison points are:

That changes how we read the numbers.

A 12% rate at wide receiver is roughly double the WR median. A quarterback at 6% has demonstrated 5x upside, but his rate still sits below the QB baseline.

The percentage alone isn't enough either. Three 5x hits over 16 games carry more weight than one hit over four games.

With that context, here's where the Week 1 heat actually lives.

Quarterback Heat

Quarterback has a clear group at the top of the historical 5x board.

Jordan Love (GB) $5,700

Love's 19% rate is more than twice the quarterback median, and it comes from three actual 5x performances across 16 games.

His 4x history supports the same story, with four qualifying games.

The 28.5-point target sits well above his current projection, but that's exactly what we're measuring. Projection tells us what's expected. His history shows us how far beyond expectation he has already traveled.

Heat Read: Strong Historical Heat

Justin Herbert (LAC) $6,100

Herbert owns three 5x performances across 17 games.

He also has five 4x hits, which gives the extreme ceiling additional support.

The combination of 18% 5x frequency, three actual hits and a 17-game sample makes this one of the strongest quarterback profiles on the board.

Heat Read: Strong Historical Heat

Josh Allen (BUF) $7,000

Allen's target is much harder to reach because of his salary.

A 35-point DraftKings performance is a monster score, yet he's reached that salary-adjusted threshold three times in 18 games.

That's what makes his 17% rate notable.

Cheap quarterbacks can reach 5x with much smaller raw fantasy scores. Allen has demonstrated the same type of return while carrying premium pricing.

Heat Read: Premium Ceiling

Geno Smith (NYJ) $4,600

Geno's appeal comes from the combination of price and history.

His 23-point target is much more manageable than the targets attached to the premium quarterbacks, and he's cleared it twice across 15 games.

His 13% rate also sits comfortably above the quarterback median.

Heat Read: Salary-Relief Heat

Bryce Young (CAR) $5,200

Young has two 5x hits in 17 games and four 4x performances.

The rate isn't as strong as Love, Herbert or Allen, but it's still above the positional median with enough games behind it to be meaningful.

Heat Read: Above-Median Ceiling

Trevor Lawrence (JAX) $5,800

Lawrence has two 5x hits across 18 games along with five 4x performances.

His 5x rate isn't dominant, but the combination of repeated extreme hits and strong 4x support keeps him in the conversation.

Heat Read: Supported Ceiling

QB Heat Sheet

QB Bottom Line

Love, Herbert and Allen provide the strongest combination of repeated 5x hits, above-median frequency and meaningful sample size.

Geno offers the most interesting salary-relief profile.

Malik Willis has the highest rate, but four games simply isn't enough history to treat 25% the same way we treat Love's 19% across 16 games.

Running Back Heat

The RB median is 6%, and the strongest reliable 5x history is concentrated near the top of the salary scale.

Gibbs (DET) $8,000

A 40-point target is the largest hurdle among the featured running backs.

Gibbs has still reached it twice across 17 games.

His 12% rate is double the RB median, and four 4x performances provide additional evidence of high-end ceiling.

Heat Read: Premium Heat

Robinson (ATL) $7,700

Robinson matches Gibbs with two 5x hits across 17 games.

His five 4x performances strengthen the overall ceiling profile.

Heat Read: Premium Heat

Taylor (IND) $7,300

Taylor also sits at double the positional median with two 5x hits.

What separates him slightly is the supporting 4x history: six 4x hits across 17 games, the strongest volume among this premium trio.

Heat Read: Premium Heat

Gainwell (TB) $5,200

Gainwell gives us a different type of profile.

The projection isn't particularly strong, but his historical rate is nearly twice the RB median and is backed by two actual 5x games.

His four 4x hits also show that the high-end outcomes weren't limited to two isolated performances.

Heat Read: Salary-Relief History

RB Heat Sheet

RB Bottom Line

Week 1 running back heat is concentrated at the top.

Gibbs, Robinson and Taylor each own two 5x hits at a 12% rate across 17-game samples.

Jeanty's historical number matches them, but the gap between his 10.02 projection and 33-point 5x target makes his current profile much harder to embrace strictly from the Heat Sheet.

Wide Receiver Heat

Wide receiver provides the deepest collection of above-median 5x profiles.

The positional median is just 6%, giving us several players who have historically reached the extreme ceiling at two or even three times the normal rate.

Wan'Dale Robinson (TEN) $4,800

Three 5x performances across 16 games give Robinson one of the strongest salary-adjusted ceiling records at the position.

His 19% rate is more than three times the WR median.

He also owns four 4x hits, so the ceiling isn't built entirely around three isolated games.

Heat Read: Strong Salary-Relief Heat

Drake London (ATL) $6,500

London's rate is nearly three times the positional median.

His four 4x performances across 12 games provide particularly strong supporting evidence.

Heat Read: Strong Historical Heat

Quentin Johnston (LAC) $4,700

Johnston combines a relatively low target with repeated historical ceiling.

Two 5x hits in 13 games put him at two and a half times the WR median.

Heat Read: Salary-Relief Heat

Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) $7,800

Chase's raw target is the key.

Thirty-nine DraftKings points is an enormous score, yet he's produced it twice under this week's salary-adjusted standard.

That's more than double the positional median despite one of the hardest thresholds at WR.

Heat Read: Premium Ceiling

Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) $7,500

St. Brown produces almost the same profile as Chase:

Two historical 5x hits, a 13% rate and a target approaching 40 points.

Heat Read: Premium Ceiling

Michael Wilson (ARI) $5,300

Wilson sits exactly at twice the WR median with two 5x performances across 17 games.

Three 4x hits provide useful support.

Heat Read: Above-Median Heat

Xavier Hutchinson (HOU) $3,200

This is one of the more interesting pure salary profiles.

A $3,200 salary lowers the 5x target to only 16 points, and Hutchinson has cleared that mark twice across 17 games.

The projection is modest, but the historical salary-adjusted ceiling is real.

Heat Read: Deep Salary Relief

WR Heat Sheet

WRs With Strong 4x History But No 5x Hit

A zero in the 5x column doesn't mean a player lacks tournament upside.

Several receivers have repeatedly reached 4x without getting all the way to this week's 5x requirement:

• Michael Pittman Jr. (PIT): 4 4x hits, 24%
• Jauan Jennings (MIN): 4 hits, 24%
• Jameson Williams (DET): 3 hits, 20%
• Khalil Shakir (BUF): 3 hits, 17%
• Christian Watson (GB): 2 hits, 18%
• DK Metcalf (PIT): 2 hits, 13%
• Ladd McConkey (LAC): 2 hits, 12%

These aren't 5x leaders, but their histories show that substantial tournament ceiling still exists.

WR Bottom Line

Wide receiver offers the widest range of ways to access 5x history.

There are premium options, mid-range options and several salary-relief profiles with rates well above the 6% positional median.

That's what makes WR the deepest Heat Sheet position in Week 1.

Tight End Heat

Tight end has one of the most interesting mixes of ceiling and salary relief.

The positional median sits around 7%, while several players have doubled that rate.

Tucker Kraft (GB) $4,500

Kraft owns the highest 5x rate among the primary tight end names.

But it comes from only eight games.

The signal is real. The confidence level needs to reflect the sample.

Heat Read: Strong Rate, Smaller Sample

Dalton Schultz (HOU) $3,400

Schultz may have the strongest complete 5x profile at tight end.

He owns:

• Three actual 5x hits
• A 16% rate
• 19 games of history
• Five supporting 4x performances
• A manageable 17-point 5x target

Kraft owns the larger percentage.

Schultz owns the stronger volume of evidence.

Heat Read: Strong Historical Heat

Mason Taylor (NYJ) $2,800

Taylor's 15% rate is more than twice the positional median and is backed by two hits across 13 games.

The problem is the gap between his current projection and the 14-point target.

The history demands attention. The current expectation demands caution.

Heat Read: Historical Heat With Projection Risk

Dallas Goedert (PHI) $4,100

Goedert offers one of the more balanced tight end profiles.

He has two 5x hits and five 4x performances across 16 games.

That combination gives the 13% extreme-ceiling rate substantial support.

Heat Read: Strong Historical Heat

Colston Loveland (CHI) $5,300

Loveland has reached 5x twice across 17 games and 4x four times.

The 26.5 target is considerably higher than the cheaper tight ends must reach, making the repeated hits notable.

Heat Read: Supported Ceiling

TE Heat Sheet

TE Bottom Line

Schultz stands out because his 16% rate comes with three hits across 19 games, while Kraft owns the highest percentage with a smaller sample.

Tight end also offers several inexpensive paths to a manageable 5x target, which makes the position particularly interesting for salary allocation.

Historical Heat With a Current-Week Warning

A strong 5x history doesn't automatically make a player attractive this week.

This is where projection becomes useful.

Jeanty (LV) RB

Two historical hits put him at double the RB median.

But reaching 33 points from a 10.02 projection requires an enormous jump beyond current expectation.

The history is strong. The Week 1 path is less convincing.

Travis Hunter (JAX) WR

The historical rate is more than twice the WR median.

The projection is nowhere close to suggesting that type of workload or production is expected this week.

That's a major difference between historical possibility and current probability.

Mason Taylor (NYJ) TE

Two 5x hits are meaningful.

A projection below five points makes the current path much thinner.

Oronde Gadsden (LAC) TE

Again, the historical signal is legitimate.

The current projection creates a much wider gap between expectation and the slate-breaking target.

The Lesson

These players illustrate why The Heat Sheet shouldn't be sorted by 5x Hit Rate and treated as a ranking.

History tells us the ceiling has existed. Projection helps tell us how reasonable it is to pursue that ceiling this week.

Week 1 Heat Hierarchy

When hit rate, hit count, sample size, salary, target and projection are considered together, these are the profiles that stand out most clearly.

Strongest QB Heat

• Jordan Love (GB)
• Justin Herbert (LAC)
• Josh Allen (BUF)

All three have three historical 5x hits and rates between 17% and 19%.

Strongest RB Heat

• Gibbs (DET)
• Robinson (ATL)
• Taylor (IND)

Each has two 5x hits across 17 games with a 12% rate, double the RB median.

Strongest WR Heat

• Wan'Dale Robinson (TEN)
• Drake London (ATL)
• Quentin Johnston (LAC)
• Ja'Marr Chase (CIN)
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
• Michael Wilson (ARI)
• Xavier Hutchinson (HOU)

This is the deepest position for repeated, above-median 5x history.

Strongest TE Heat

• Dalton Schultz (HOU)
• Tucker Kraft (GB)
• Dallas Goedert (PHI)
• Colston Loveland (CHI)

Kraft owns the highest rate, while Schultz owns the strongest combination of hit count and sample size.

The Week 1 Heat Sheet Takeaways

Quarterback offers a clear ceiling tier

Love, Herbert and Allen each have three historical 5x performances, with rates more than twice or close to twice the positional median.

Premium running backs aren't lacking extreme upside

Gibbs, Robinson and Taylor have all reached demanding 5x targets multiple times despite their salaries.

Wide receiver provides the deepest 5x pool

There are multiple paths into extreme ceiling across every salary range, from Chase and St. Brown down to Johnston and Hutchinson.

Tight end may offer the most interesting salary flexibility

Schultz combines a $3,400 salary, a 17-point 5x target, three historical hits and a 16% rate across 19 games.

That's very different from simply choosing a cheap tight end because he fits the lineup.

Final Takeaway

The Heat Sheet isn't trying to predict exactly who reaches 5x this week.

It's identifying where slate-breaking salary-adjusted outcomes have already happened.

The strongest profiles aren't simply the highest percentages.